An unintentional leak of a US plan to stop the war between Russia and Ukraine has created a big buzz in Europe. The 28-point paper proposes that Ukraine would have to give up some areas of its east that are part of the territory to Russia and drastically reduce the size of its army. The proposal has been rejected in every way, and Ukraine has said that it is not acceptable. Moscow and Brussels have not really come across the file but are talking about it. However, the information is leaking out in different copies, and people are talking it over very quickly.
Ukraine Loses Territory and Military Strength
The most controversial section of the draft demands that Ukraine give up the parts of Donetsk that are still under its control. These areas are the largest cities like Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, where it is estimated that over 250,000 Ukrainians reside. That would effectively turn them into a no man’s land, but still be considered part of Russia. Given that Russia has been shelling the town of Pokrovsk for more than a year, it is very unlikely that Ukraine will just relinquish those areas, which are very important from a strategic point of view.
The plan outlines the decrease of the Ukrainian armed forces from 880,000 to 600,000. When the war broke out in 2022, Ukraine was only in possession of 250,000 troops, but as a result, it has now raised its army power to the point that it can withstand the aggressor alone. It would be hard for most people to accept that the reduction of their number is demanded of them while no restrictions of any kind are imposed on Russia.
Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council that Ukraine will never accept limits on its military or recognise occupied territory as Russian. The draft also says Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk would be recognised as “de facto” Russian, even by the United States.
No NATO, Maybe EU, Vague Security Promises
According to the leaked file, it is necessary for Ukraine to legally reflect in its constitution that it will not be a part of NATO. In addition, NATO should make an official statement that Ukraine is not allowed to join the Alliance. This is contradictory to Ukraine’s constitution, where joining NATO and the EU is set as one of the country’s goals. The document also affirms that Ukraine can be an EU member and would get better access to the European market; however, it almost ignores the opinion of the 27 EU countries.
On security guarantees, the plan is extremely vague: it promises a “robust coordinated military response” if Russia invades again, and talks about restoring sanctions. However, it does not specify, in any way, the entity that would offer such assurances or the operation of these guarantees.
As a matter of fact, this is substantially different from what is stated in the fifth article of the NATO treaty, which interprets an attack on one member as an aggression against the whole alliance. Of course, Ukraine would need a real and strong guarantee and not just a vague indication of support before it would put its signature on any paper. Besides, it mentions that elections in Ukraine should be held within 100 days. There cannot be such a thing as a country holding elections under martial law.
Money, Sanctions, and Bringing Russia Back
The draft would use $100 billion of frozen Russian assets for the rebuilding of Ukraine, but the US would take 50 per cent of the profits. Another $100 billion would be added by Europe for reconstruction. This seems like a bad deal for Europe, which would pay huge bills but get nothing back. The total cost to rebuild Ukraine has been estimated at $524 billion, so these amounts might not be enough anyway. About 200 billion euros in Russian assets are frozen in Belgium, and the EU is already working on plans to use that money to help Ukraine.
The plan is also suggesting reintroducing Russia into the world economy and extending an invitation to Putin to rejoin the G8 circle of powers. This is improbable as Putin is an arrest warrant holder by the International Criminal Court. Russia was removed from the G7 after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. If the other countries were not so willing to let it back in before the full-scale invasion, they certainly will not do it now.
The draft states that the sanctions against Russia would be removed “gradually and on a case-by-case basis,” a speed that Moscow will probably consider too slow. Reports say Ukraine has until late next week to agree to the plan, although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it just “a list of potential ideas.”
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