United to Cut Flights as Fuel Prices Soar
Synopsis
United Airlines (UAL.0) plans to trim roughly 5% of its scheduled flights in the second and third quarters of 2026 after the Iran war drove jet fuel costs within striking distance of double where it was at the end of February CEO Scott Kirby told employees he is preparing for oil prices to reach $175 a barrel, which would remain above $100 until sometime late 2027. At those prices, United’s annual fuel bill increases by $11 billion. The cuts target overnight, midweek and off-peak routes. Flights to both Tel Aviv and Dubai are still suspended. United intends to return to its full schedule this autumn.
United Airlines will stop 5% of its scheduled flights for the second and third quarters as the war in Iran is driving jet fuel prices higher. Scott Kirby, the chief executive, is preparing for all prices to reach one $75 a barrel.
Key Highlights
- United Airlines is reducing its planned flights in Q2 and Q3 of this year by 5%.
- Scott Kirby, its CEO, is forecasting oil will reach $175 a barrel and hold above $100 through the end of 2027.
- If fuel remains at current prices, United’s annual fuel bill increases by $11 billion.
- Suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai. Chicago O’Hare loses some capacity, too.
United Airlines Cuts 5% of Flights as Fuel Costs Pinch
United Airlines announced that it would cancel about 5% of flights already scheduled for the second and third quarters of 2026. The Iran war has driven the fringe of jet fuel prices to a level that can’t be ignored, chief executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo.
Jet fuel prices have almost doubled since late February, adding to costs across the industry and distorting global flying patterns through re-routings and airspace restrictions. The decision was cut and dried for Kirby, there’s no reason to operate routes that lose money at current fuel prices.
Kirby Is Preparing for Oil at $175 a Barrel
The numbers that Kirby is dealing with are sobering. United is working on the assumption that oil will climb to as high as $175 a barrel and not retrace back below $100 until late 2027, he said. That is not a worst-case scenario for the airline, that is the base case it’s now planning around.
If fuel remained at those levels, United’s annual fuel cost would increase by some $11 billion, more than double the profit the airline earned in its most profitable year ever. The logical response is to cut flights that cannot cover that cost.
Which Flights Are Being Cut
Cuts are targeted, not across the board. United will scrap roughly three percentage points of off-peak flying in the second and third quarters, including red-eye and weaker midweek flights. It will withdraw about a percentage point of capacity at Chicago O’Hare and suspend its services to Tel Aviv and Dubai, making for 5% points less than what it planned to operate this year.
Before this announcement, Kirby said, the airline had been cutting its weakest flights, some services on Saturdays and overnight routes. The full schedule is expected to resume this fall after the off-peak period ends.
United Is Still Taking New Planes and Finds Robust Demand
Even with the cuts, United is not stepping back from everything. United will also continue taking delivery of roughly 120 new aircraft in 2023, including 20 new 787s, and will take another 130 new planes through April of 2028, Kirby said. Long-term fleet plans remain unchanged.
Travel demand is still unusually high, and the airlines, including Delta and American, have said that strong bookings have allowed them to jack up their prices and recover at least part of the increase in fuel costs. United finds itself in a similar spot, demand has held up, allowing the airline there to jack up prices on the flights it does retain. Still, Kirby acknowledged that sustained high energy costs ultimately could soften bookings.
FAQs
- Why is United cutting flights?
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the war with Iran began in late February, making some routes unprofitable to fly.
- Which routes are being slashed?
Roughly 5% of United’s planned capacity in Q2 and Q3, mostly overnight, midweek and off-peak routes.
- Which destinations are being suspended?
Tel Aviv and Dubai were put on hold. Also losing some capacity is Chicago O’Hare.
- Will we see the return of the full schedule?
United intends to bring back its entire schedule this fall. Plans for 2027 and beyond remain unchanged.
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