Exclusive: An update from the Centre for Population is predicting that Australia will have a population of 28 million people by 2026. Hitting this big number is a milestone, but, the country is now growing at its slowest pace in years. The growth rate has now fallen to 1.3%, compared with 1.5% just a year ago, experts said.
This change is occurring because the wave of people relocating to Australia in the wake of the pandemic is beginning to fade. And although the overall population continues to grow, the composition of those who are coming and going is shifting. This has aroused fresh discussions on population issues, like how the country is going to deal with an ageing society and a smaller workforce.
Improve the Migration and Birth Rates
A steep decline in overseas migration is, by far, the major reason for the slowdown. In 2036, the number of newcomers moving to Australia is expected to drop by half from a few years ago. This shift is helping to relieve some of the pressure on housing, but it is also fueling a political debate about what the proper number of newcomers should be.
At the same time, births are declining. The current birth rate is around 1.45 children per woman, the lowest on record. More couples are opting to have smaller families or delaying decisions to start families. To address these population issues, the government is exploring how to make it cheaper and easier for families to have kids if they want them.
Realities Hit Sydney and Perth
The report also underscores how cities are evolving differently. Sydney Population growth continues to be a significant driver of the national story with NSW being the most populous state at over 9.6 million people. Yet Australians are leaving Sydney in droves for other states, where house prices can be lower, or life is less hectic. As people move, even though they are moving out, Sydney is on track to exceed 8 million residents by the 2050s.
Out west, we’re experiencing strong population growth in Western Australia. With its prosperous mining and energy industries, no place in the country is growing faster than the West. Perth is booming and workers have been coming from overseas and the east to work. Western Australia is also expected to have the fastest-growing population in the coming decade, according to experts.
The Future of Australia’s Big Cities
Sydney is currently the largest, but a huge shift is on the horizon. Projections indicate Melbourne is growing at a faster pace and will overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous city in the 2060s. It’s possible that by then Melbourne will be home to more than nine million people. This long-term transition will manifest in future planning for trains, schools and hospitals heavily centred on the southern capital.
As the country crosses 28 million, attention is turning to “median age,” which continues ticking upward. But with dementia overtaking heart disease as the leading cause of death, it is evident Australia is ageing. The question now for the next 20 years is how to balance this ageing population versus the need for young skilled workers in order to keep the economy moving on.
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