Global oil markets are facing the risk of worsening supply shortages even if the conflict between the United States and Iran ends soon, as depleted inventories and disrupted shipping routes continue to strain the global energy system.
Key highlights
- Global oil inventories continue to decline sharply
- Supply shortages may worsen even if conflict ends soon
- Analysts warn recovery could take months
- Emergency reserves and commercial stockpiles being depleted
- Jet fuel and gasoline shortages remain growing risks
Stockpiles shrinking at alarming pace
Energy companies and analysts said the world has been relying heavily on emergency reserves, commercial stockpiles and oil held at sea to offset supply disruptions caused by the conflict.
Global inventories are expected to fall to around 98 days of demand by the end of May, down from 105 days before the war began, according to analysts.
Recovery could take months
Executives warned that even if peace negotiations succeed, it could take months for Middle Eastern oil exports and refining operations to return to normal.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said global hydrocarbon stock draws may already exceed 500 million barrels.
Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said the market has not yet fully absorbed the scale of the disruption.
Strait of Hormuz remains central risk
The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to delay shipments of crude oil and fuel products worldwide.
Executives estimate it could take one to two months for shipping flows to normalize after the route fully reopens.
Fuel shortages becoming a growing concern
Analysts warned that low fuel inventories could create shortages during the peak Northern Hemisphere summer season, when demand for gasoline, aviation fuel and freight transportation typically rises sharply.
The International Energy Agency has warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages as early as June.
Asia and Europe hit hard
Asian crude imports fell sharply in April as supply disruptions worsened across the region.
In Singapore, fuel oil inventories dropped to near one-year lows, while several European countries are reviewing emergency stockpile requirements.
Australia also announced plans to significantly expand fuel reserves following shortages linked to the conflict.
Oil prices still elevated
Although oil prices fell recently on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, analysts say physical fuel markets remain extremely tight.
Benchmark Brent Crude prices remain far above pre-war levels despite recent declines.
What comes next
Markets are watching whether peace negotiations can restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ease pressure on global fuel supplies.
However, analysts warn depleted inventories and damaged refining capacity could keep energy markets strained well into the second half of 2026.
FAQs
Q1: Why are oil inventories falling?
Supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict have forced countries to use emergency reserves and commercial stockpiles.
Q2: Could shortages continue after the war ends?
Yes. Analysts say it could take months for oil flows and refining operations to fully recover.
Q3: What regions are most affected?
Asia and Europe face growing risks of fuel shortages, especially jet fuel.
Q4: Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
It handles a major share of global oil and gas shipments.
Q5: Are oil prices still high?
Yes. Prices remain significantly above levels seen before the conflict began.
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